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class="spanimg3">2018-12-18 17:28</span> <span class="spanimg4"><a href="#cm">我要评论</a>(<i><a href="#SOHUCS" id="changyan_count_unit"></a> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://assets.changyan.sohu.com/upload/plugins/plugins.count.js"></script></i>)</span> </p> </div> <div> <div class="say"><p>微信刚处于商业化的v步阶D,在很长一D|间里会l箋保持增长Q但L一天会出现瓉。到那天Q势必会Ud?.....</p></div> </div> </div> <div class="article-content fontSizeSmall BSHARE_POP"> <p style="text-align: center;"> <img alt="10" border="0" src="/uploads/allimg/181122/19302AK9-0.jpg" /><br /> (囄来源Q?strong>{果资讯</strong>)</p> <p> 印象中,一直都是阿里巴巴和腾讯之间展开杀与封杀的战争。通过微信公众q_开讄店铺无法使用支付宝付ƾ,微信反过来又开始封杀支付宝钱包的病毒式传播,q有屏蔽快的打R、天天动听、虾c音乐等{。双方之间的苟且之事Q我已不愿意再多说什么,但说白了其实是利益冲突。这L竞争本无可厚非,是在国外也q不见?/p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>全都是阿里系Q史上最二的U包大战</strong></span></p> <p> 本来文章惌腾讯的,但不得不强势插入一D吐?ldquo;q包展开的那场大战?rdquo;无论是微博还是阿里巴_所展开的红包营销Q现在看来只是在错误的时间节炚w复做一仉误的事情Q仅此而已。红包明昑ְ会成为即到来的春节期间一个重的营销工具Q但自阿里巴巴和微博推出Ӟ过q时间还有长达接q一个月旉。在此之前营销dq猛Q只会造成一个结果,用户对红包慢慢开始麻烦?/p> <p> 一鼓作气再而衰三而竭Q在支付宝红包遭遇封杀后,阉K巴巴斚w昨晚又紧急推Z“U包口o”功能以防止再ơ被杀。但在朋友圈里所产生的能量,却早已不大如前,响应者寥寥无几。一些h放言“微博和支付宝U包q是要革微信U包的命”Q但q在他们惛_一切办法要来微信上发红包面前都昑־有点苍白无力?/p> <p> 再退一步讲Q无论是微博U包q是支付宝红包,基本上都是用h׃单后Q再l别人发。这U模式明昑ƈ不具备什么可持箋性,毕竟不是Zh都是土豪Qh人都有觉悟。当U包无法q行双向通时Q自然就陷入了一U僵局。其实,我倒觉得阿里巴巴和微博斚w应该d鉴一下打车Y件的U包发放机制。例如,发一些游戏礼包、优惠券、电q{等Q针对不同的对象Q展开不同的推q模式。都已经是大数据时代Q完全没有创新那q玩什么?</p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>利益之争Q用户体验对微信来说已不再重?/strong></span></p> <p> 今天大早上v来,看到里面在说微信封杀|易云音乐的事情。看到这个消息,我一下就从床上蟩了v来。经试当在|易云音乐APP上进行分享至微信的操作时Q页面显C?ldquo;׃你当前你分n的内容存在安全隐患,无法分n到微?rdquo;。而这基本与虾c音乐和天天动听分np|的理׃致?/p> <p> 但很昄的一个事实,|易云音乐和阉Kp那是八竿子也打不到一块去。至于封杀的理由,一个很理性的猜测是“2014q?1月,腾讯曾v诉网易云音乐?00首R犯了腾讯的版?rdquo;。封杀阉Kp,q可以理解成两家巨头的战略布局Q无可厚非。但|易云音乐,对微信核心的业务基本没有太大影响。如果说Z扶持旗下一个品,去杀一个同cȝ竞品Q更或者说|易云音乐那弱到可怜的C交属性会对微信生颠覆的话,那腾讯未免对微信的用L性就昑־q于不自信了?/p> <p> <strong>其实早在《腾讯赢得了战争Q而微信却输掉了未来》一文中Q我已经表达q类似的观点Q?/strong></p> <p> <span style="font-family: 楷体;">一个真正的开攑^収ͼ其实需要做的就是ؓ用户提供最Z质的服务。而微信其实早已经意识Cq点Q正如张龙所说的那样“如果微信我们不做成^台化、不做大Q那我们׃L。因Z本n是个通讯工具Q你必须要大”。但无论是O2O、电商、打车、支付等领域Q腾讯都属于后来者,所合作的对象提供的服务Q都不是用户的最优选择。做大,做^収ͼ扶持合作伙伴Q打ȝ争敌手,q最l变臃肿q早已成为微信的宿命。这个看似开攄q_也越来越闭Q因为只有在闭的圈子里面,腾讯才能把其C交关系铑֏展到极致?/span></p> <p> 杀|易音乐的具体理由是什么,q里已经不想再多做评PQQ音乐寄n于微信这个强大的量q_短时间内成ؓ媒体音乐市场第一q不是梦惻I“q接一?rdquo;来变成腾讯提升股L一番说辞。而对我说Q或许只是多了一个减微信用时间的理由而已。就让QQ音乐四大天王的传说一直流传下dQ觉得这h好?/p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>从第三方游戏说vQ腾讯从闭被迫走向开?/strong></span></p> <p> 其实Q要说腾讯封闭这个事情,那么q必MUd游戏开始说赗在腾讯Ud游戏q_刚推出时Q强大的渠道分发、快速的爬榜以及巨大的用户量Q微信被理所当然的当成移动第一游戏分发q_。腾讯依靠手Q、微信、应用宝E稳占据了移动游戏接q?0%的市Z额,q个格局至今没有被打破?/p> <p> 但一开始,腾讯Ud游戏q_在引q游戏时Q一直都昑־相当慎重。ȝ来说大体上遵守了三条准则Q只引进国际上的知名游戏大作Q只上线腾讯自研的移动游戏,国内W三Ҏ戏必要有腾讯入股的背景。虽然腾讯方面一直没有承认这些,但Q何的狡辩在事实之前都会显得苍白无力?/p> <p> 在移动游戏刚刚爆发的2013q以?014q上半年Q腾讯这L选择无可厚非。腾讯移动游戏的收入?亿元?8亿元Q再到后来的30亿元。很大程度上腾讯一家公司独占了整个Ud游戏市场的增长红利。但在第三季度胦报公布后Q腾讯移动游戏收入从30亿元下降?6亿元Q虽然这有苹果方面的政策因素。但对腾讯来_Ud游戏q_上缺乏精品游戏以及陷入流量瓶颈也是不争的事实?/p> <p> 自那以后Q腾讯一改之前的政策Q开始大规模的放开引入W三Ҏ戏,q取消之前的限制Q而处于停滞增长的腾讯Ud游戏q_也重要引来第二春Qƈ诞生出《我叫MT2》、《仙剑奇侠传手游》、《三国之刃》等多款游戏Q这些游戏都曄Appstore畅销榜第一名,q成讯移动游戏^台重要的收入支撑炏V腾讯高激动又无奈的表C?ldquo;我们的^台游戏收入出C增长Q但主要是由W三Ҏ戏推动?rdquo;</p> <p> 在对待入驻腾讯移动游戏^台的W三Ҏ戏,腾讯的态度也慢慢变得更为开放,臛_以前只能腾讯独占的游戏,现在都可以在别的q_外部联运了。在d12月,媒体报道U腾讯正计划微信、手Q自研/独代产品与外部渠道展开联运合作。腾讯方面也证实了这个猜,q把q个计划命名?ldquo;行业发行”?/p> <p> 腾讯Ud游戏实来开放,但这q不是由于腾讯具备了开攑֟因,其背后只是移动游戏收入出现的瓉D着腾讯不得不去开放?/p> <p> <strong>一是自w研发基因不Iq让腾讯无法保在每个细分领域市场都Ex胜券Q引入第三方一定程度上可以改变q种颓势。二是自w流量存在瓶颈,无论是应用宝、微信还是手QQ其所能分发的游戏数量虽然庞大Q但毕竟仍然是有限的Q腾讯移动游戏l保持高速增长,仍需借助W三方^台。三是现象游戏的启C,整个Ud游戏市场过70%的收入来自个别现象游戏。这些游戏如果没和腾讯合作,那么׃和诸如百度?60q样的渠道合作,对腾讯来说这很可能损失掉整个细分市场?/strong></p> <p> <span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>未来腾讯走向何方Q仍然还会是开?/strong></span></p> <p> 腾讯的社交^台和Ud游戏q_?ldquo;开?rdquo;的问题上出现了E然相异的两种态度Q但qƈ非无法o人理解。其背后的根本原因,在于移动游戏比L交^台更快的C一步?/p> <p> p讯的Ud游戏q_来说Q自推出一开始就寄生在微信和手Qq_上,腾讯多年来在游戏市场也拥有丰富的l验Q自己就可以很好的切入这个市场。腾讯保持封闭无可厚非,而后期由于l封闭已l没办法再保持高速增长,只能开攑ּ入第三方?/p> <p> 而社交^台来_最重要的品微信虽然背靠QQ强大的社交关p链Q但到头来也{于从零h。腾讯需要保持一个开攄态度Q尽可能的吸引的更多用户q入整个q_让其快速成ѝ微信正成ؓ腾讯保持收入增长的最重要火R_现在的微信已l够强大,完全没必要再开放下厅R?/p> <p> 微信刚处于商业化的v步阶D,在很长一D|间里会l箋保持增长Q但L一天会出现瓉。到那天Q势必会Ud游戏开攑^C栯q走向开放。这其实是一个简单的轮回。因讯不仅是一个开攑^収ͼ也是一个服务提供者。即是裁判员又是q动员的双重角色定位Q得腾讯不得不始终陷入一U决{困境之中,在开放与闭之中来回U结?/p> <p> 但正如国外在Facebook一家独大的情况下,仍能诞生如Snapchat、Viber、Instgramq类新型C交q_一栗在中国的社交市场,腾讯也ƈ非能够稳操胜券。从开发走向封闭,但最l还是要重新开放v来,而这只是C交q_的宿命而已?/p> <p>  </p> <p><strong>转蝲h明出处?/strong></p> </div> <!-- 心情 --> <div class="mood"> <div id="cyEmoji" role="cylabs" data-use="emoji"></div> </div> <!-- @心情 --> <div class="tag"> <div class="tagtitle"></div> <a href="/tags.php?/裁判?">裁判?/a><a href="/tags.php?/q动?">q动?/a><a href="/tags.php?/腾讯/">腾讯</a><a href="/tags.php?/开?">开?/a><a href="/tags.php?/闭/">闭</a> <div class="share"> <a href="javascript:;" class="sharea1">分n到新微?/a> <a href="javascript:;" class="sharea2">分n到腾讯微?/a> <a href="javascript:;" class="sharea3">收藏</a> </div> </div> <div class="avow"> <div class="avowtitle"></div> <!-- 声明 --> 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